Crisis Sentiment Index
Since September 2008, members of the Directors and Chief Risk Officers' Group have provided their assessment of the current status of the global financial crisis. These results have been assembled by Ductilibility and from December 2008 on are being reported as the Crisis Sentiment Index or CSI. The CSI was updated monthly until September 2009 and quarterly thereafter, unless economic or market conditions warrant a return to monthly assessments.
The CSI is a standardized assessment by Chief Risk Officers, Board Members and other senior risk executives from financial and non-financial companies around the world. Full reports of the CSI are provided to all respondents and to members of the Ductilibility research circle.
Each month's report features a special insight question that explores an additional aspect of the crisis:
March 2012 - What are the geo-economic implications of the Iranian situation and the potential changes in leadership in several large economies?
December 2011 - What is your assessment of the status of the crisis in Europe?
September 2011 - Which is a more appropriate response from governments right now? Should they follow a classical Keynesian approach and grow deficits or is there such a debt overhang that cutting government spending would actually be paradoxically more beneficial?
June 2011 - Which headline risk events are of most concern to you now?
March 2011 - What are the economic growth prospects and risk prospects for various economic regions around the world over the next ten years?
December 2010 - Are recent increases in equity prices leading indicators of improved economic conditions or do they reflect risks that had been discounted, but were never realized?
September 2010 - How much time will need to pass without a major incident before you feel that the financial crisis has passed and which risk is the source of the greatest uncertainty, political, economic or financial?
June 2010 - Which significant risk events are likely to occur and which you fear the most?
March 2010 - Is there a Chinese asset bubble underway? If so, how likely is it to burst in the next six months and if it does, which regional economies will be impacted most severely?
December 2009 - How will proposed/enacted regulatory changes for financial services, made in response to the crisis, impact the future growth of the financial services industry in the following regions (US, UK, Europe (continental) and Asia (generally)?
September 2009 - How much time will need to pass without a major incident before you feel that the financial crisis has passed?
August 2009 - If it was your decision, would you re-appoint Ben Bernanke as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors?
July 2009 - Was the Goldman Sachs buyback of warrants issued to the US Treasury an outlier event or a sign of good things to come?
June 2009 - Which leading indicators are being used to project the future of the crisis?
May 2009 - What level of attention is the crisis receiving from your Board and CEO compared to three months ago?
April 2009 - What trends in consumer prices are most likely to be realized over the coming two years?
March 2009 - Has the bottom been put in on stock indices in various countries?February 2009 - What has been the most surprising aspect of the crisis to-date versus your expectations of six months ago? What concerns you? What gives you hope?
January 2009 - To what extent is sovereign default risk among G-10 countries a concern?
December 2008 - What are the potential unintended consequences of near-zero short-term interest rates?
November 2008 - Which leading indicators are being used to project the future of the crisis?
October 2008 - To what extent is the real economy going to be impacted?
September 2008 - Which government actions have been most beneficial?